Puetz Panic??

SORRY GUYS - IT SEEMS THE PICTURES HAVE ASCENDED INTO CYBER HAVEN - RIGHT NOW I DO NOT HAVE TIME TO ENTER THEM AGAIN. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


About twice a year there is usually somebody referring to the Research Puetz made with regard to Panics and Moon eclipses.

I have not seen much talk about it this year, so perhaps this is the year when another panic is added to his research. Lunar eclipse is today wednesday 20th.

This, in short is what he found out.

Several years ago, a stock market analyst named Steve Puetz checked to see if there was a relationship between eclipses and market panics. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei collapse of 1990. He found that market panics tend to occur around the time of full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz discovered that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, according to Puetz calculation, is less than 1 in 127,000.


It is important to understan that he is NOT predicting a crash at every lunar eclipse. What he is saying is: If a crash is occuring it is a high probabillity that it will happen under these circumstances - which is not the same. Also There are about two eclipses every year. One should also know that moon and solar eclipses almost always comes in pairs. Solar Eclipse first at a new moon and then a lunar eclipse at the next full moon. (or vice versa LE first and then a SE).
In order to qualify for Puetz'es formula we have to have a solar eclipse first and then a lunar eclopse NOT the other way around. Now look at this chart. Red bars are solar eclipses and white bars are the days when we had a lunar eclipse. There are two things to note in the chart.
1)The four last pairs has been i the wrong order until today. 2)The first four were in the right order - and price were lower around the lunar eclipse.




So - should we fasten the seatbelts?

Pehaps....what Puetz found was that a panic could happen up to 3 days after the eclipse. But to just expect a crash because of an eclipse doesn't make sense. Are there other factors to support the the possibillity of a a panic this week or next?

Well, let's look at some other facts. One of the facts in TA is that price moves the way of least resistance. Two other things should also be noticed.

A)Breakdown through the lower trendline of a falling wedge often generates dramatic moves down.

B) Break Failures often generates dramatic moves in the opposite direction of the break.

What we see in this chart is A) a breakdown through the falling wedge into the Jan 20 bottom and B) a break back into the wedge at "1", which fails with the long black candle.

Another try is made at "2" whith price not reaching the green trendline. A break is tried above the blue falling resistance line, but we get just above the line, again it was dismissed with a long black candle. A last try was made today (Tuesday): Another break above the blue line was rejected with a close below the line. The blue line is longer than the red so it's probable that the red is broken - not the blue.

In the next chart below, we have different lines but they are telling the same story. The green pattern by the way is a bearish "Megaphone" pattern. This chart i even more bearish. Todays's candlestick was a bearish engulfing - indicating falling prices also tomorrow.

If we add the "Bearish Engulfing" information to the Elliot Wave count, it does not in anyway contradict the Puetz research - on the contrary.

If my count is correct we are entering wave 3 of 3 of five (4 in the chart should be 5) of THREE. (3), If you are not familiar with ewave counts, wave Three (3) is the longest and most dangerous/dramatic( of the 5 wave sequence) in a bear market (which this is). The setup is perfect for a "Puetz"!

How about a seasonal chart?

The blue line describes how price has behaved on average since 1971 (blue line)

I have marked the end o February, since we have another interesting phenomenon: If you go back and check the dates Aug 16 and Jan 20 on the charts above you will notice we had some nice spikes down into those dates.

If we checked the planetary postions on those dates, we would have found (well, we actually knew in advance...it was in my "Technical Support" letter) that the pictures looked like this. Some people call them "trispects".

On February 27 we have another "trispect". This is especially interesting since it involves the three money planets Venus, Jupiter and Saturn, with Mercury in the middle working as a trigger like in the other two incidents. I would say this is another peace to the Puetz Puzzle.

And finally I woul like to show another interesting thing from the Danish stockmarket. The C20 index. If you are interested in market Geometry, this is a fascinating study, that shows how orderly the market sometimes develops. Also how fractals builds a market.

We are studying the "V" formations of which we have Three (marked by ellipses of different sizes. If we measure TIME, we find that, using the span of the first "V" the second "V" is exactly twice the span of the first one and the third one is twice the second one (4 x the first one)

And check out the pullbacks "cd" and "CD" they are exactly in the same proportions to each other.



Which is interesting in itself, but here comes the scary part!
If these fractals continues to work. And the connection below, that cd=150% of ab. then CD should be 150% of AB?
We would then end up at 216!
That's a 50% decline from today - in the Danish market.
Another piece in the Puetz Puzzle?




This is not a prediction, just a possibillity
It's quite unbelievable.
But so ist this:
The data is Federal reservedata I received from Leif in sweden (data 1950-2008)
AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS - look at "non - borrowed reserves" for January here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3hist1.txt
OR
If you don't want to do the work, I did a chart, showing data every Jan from 1950-2008)

We went from 42.000 to - (MINUS!!!) 3.800 in TWO months. And what we see is data from 1950!!!!

If you think 50% decline in a Puetz Panic is unbelivable - then we shouldn't believe the Fed data either.

Or is the Fed data insignificant for the stock market?

You decide.

I am just showing some facts.