APRIL 19 A DATE TO REMEMBER?

För större bild - klick på bilden.

Eric Hadec som ger ut "Insiide Track" har gjort ett omfattande research omkring datoen 19 April och dess betydelse i den amerikanska historien (frågan är om datoen är lika vigtigt i resten av världen - det tror jag inte han har undersökt eller intresserat sig för...)
På http://www.insiidetrack.com/ ligger den , helt gratis, ( "'Bring on the Bear' INSIIDE Track Special Report"), men var beredd på att hans kommentarer är inte speciellt lättläst.

När man ser på tid (mäter tid), i TA, kan man räkna i grader, där 1 år är 360 grader (=det antal grader i en cirkel det tar för jorden att cirkulera runt solen på ett år). Denna "kunskap" använder vi oss av, för att se om denna dato (19 april) också kan vara viktig på de finansiella marknaderna (t.ex aktier).

Vad vi så gör, i det här fallet, är att addera 180 grader till 19 April (dvs ser hur det ser ut på "andra sidan"). Och vad får vi, jo, 19 Oktober. Ett datum som de flesta aktieinvestorer känner igen. Där de flesta krascher har skett. Dvs där vi har haft stor "energi" i marknaden.

Kan det vara så att April också kan vara betydelsefull för utvecklingen? Och ni kanske kommer ihåg min blog från 11 April där jag i 3e och 4e chartet drar en parallel mellan 1987 och 2007, med solförmörkelse och fullmåne som utgångspunkt. Ideen var där att en period efter fullmånen skulle vara energi givande till marknaden och kanske utvecklas till ett dramatiskt fall. Den springande punkten här är energi. Problemet är bara att man inte vet om energien är positiv eller negativ. Många tekniska aspekter pekade på att energien var negativ och att vi antagligen sett en topp i marknaderna. Det har inte skett och vi måste därför undersöka om energien i verkligheten i stället är positiv och vi skall se en (dramatisk?) stigning i stället?

När vi ser oss omkring, så har det varit en massiv förväntan hos både privat investorer och rådgivare som trott på en ansenlig korrektion i marknadern, det har vi kunnat se genom diverse indikatorer. Detta är en passus från en intressant blog som jag visar i helhet i slutet av min blog.

In my opinion, the US stock market continues to factor in way too much bad news at current levels. One of the characteristics of the current US “negativity bubble” is that most potential positives are undermined, downplayed or completely ignored, while almost every potential negative is exaggerated, trumpeted, obsessed over and promptly priced in to stock prices. “Irrational pessimism” by investors has resulted in a dramatic decrease in the supply of stock.

När marknaden inte reagerar negativt på negativ stämning och nyheter, är detta ofta en viktig signal som skall tas på allvar. Detta kombinerat med den negativa tekniska bilden av diverse marknader, som också ignorerats, ger oss ännu en signal. Och om vi föreställer oss att både tekniker och fundamentalister har gått över på sidolinjen för att avvakta. Och att vi dessutom har människor som är och har varit bullish och skall handla, så har vi en bra grogrund för en fortsatt uppgång.
Men låt oss se på några charts.

Sammanfattningsvis ser det ut som om vi den sista veckan fram till den 19 April sett
att Dollarn har fallit ned mot ett megasupport och aktiemarknaden har brutit ut mot högre höjder.

Vi börjar med ett Euro/Dollar chart. Observera datoen för ATH 1995, se motstanden 2007 och dato och husk på Eric.

Ser vi på ett månadschart över de sista 27 åren, kan vi se:
1. En Andrews Pitchfork's övre medianlinje ligger ligger som motstånd mot fortsatt uppgång.
2. En perfekt fibonacci cykel med 1980 och 1995 som utgångspunkt har det viktiga fibratio 0.786 (78,6% av cykeln)- se också hur tidigare fibratios fångat in tidigare pivots.




Ser vi på ett dags chart ser det inte annorlunda ut. En (blå) stigande trendkanal bildar motstånd och det gör också en rosa pitchfork samt en Fib cykel igen. Vi har alltså starkt motstånd i många perspektiv mht Euro/Dollar och kan därför för vänta oss fallande Euro. Dvs stigande dollar framöver.
Men vi skall huske på mina tidigare TA analyser som lika övertygande visat indikationer på fallande aktiekurser i denna tidsperiod.Vi skall också huske på att stigande dollar betyder sannolikt också fallande guld priser.
Det vill säga, kan vi se både fallande dollar, fallande aktie och fallande guldpris (det ser också ut som om Olie prisen är fallande - se engelsk blog nedan) ???????



Låt oss se på lite aktieindex i stället. DOW weekly chart:
I detta chart visar jag hur de två tidigare uppgångarna AB och CD, kan projiceras fortsatt uppåt och hur vi har ett fib cluster (samling fib relationer) som skapar motstånd strax över toppen vid 12800 och i mina tidigare bloggar finner vi många fler exempel på motsånd mot fortsatt stignaingar.

Det ser nu ut som om vi 19 april (obs dato) har brutit detta motstånd (break out= energi)i Dow jones.



Ett annat index vi skall se på är SOX indexet (Semiconductor Index), det index som haft minst uppgång från botten 2002. Jag till hör en av dem som tror att vi i detta index kan se vart vi är på väg. Att vi här ser de första signalerna på den framtida trenden.
Vi har legat i en trading range de sista 4 månaderna och riktningen av break out i index kan ge en finger visning om vart marknaden är på väg.

Utan att gå in på detaljer, kan vi se att vi vid "X" har haft flott support. Men att uppgången avstannat och gått in i en trading range. Det ser nu ut som om vi marginalt (på ett weekly chart) brutit positivt ut ur denna range.

I detta daily chart över SMH, som är en aktie som handlas som och som följer SOX indexet, kan vi se hela förloppet i närstudie och att vi har ett real break out är det ingen tvivel om enligt min mening.
1. lille nreak
2.test av break
3. the real one med break away gap uner hög volym
detta är ett textbook breakout.

Låt oss se på ännu ett long term chart.
Detta chart är över S&P500 från 1975, där vi lagt in sammanhanget mellan viktiga bottnar i historien från 1975 fram till nu och där de gröna trendlinjerna är parallella.


En "Närstudie" av indexet, visar en gigantisk inverterad sHs formation med potential på 1557. Men lägg märke till den röda stigande trendkanalen med upside break med testa av detta break i det dramatiska Februari fallet samt volymstigningen under hela stigningen.
Vad som är fascinerande i detta chart är vad som händer när halslinjen testas - OBSERVERA DATOEN 22 April!. Min kommentar "This is where it all changed" skrev jag för lång tid sedan - utan att den gången vara medveten om betydelsen av den 20 April!
Min tolkning av detta chart (med bullbriller på) är att perioden 2005-2007 har varit en konsolidering med positiv bias och brottet över kanalen indikerar en accelerard uppgång i S&P indexet. Speciellt som det kraftiga motståndet i 1450 området är övertygande brutet. Minimums potential är 1560.



Nasdaq Composite ligger i ett perfekt läge för en dramatisk uppgång.
Vi har haft två breakdown failures ur denna stigande (negativa)kil. Om en stigande kil skall brytas positivt brukar det ske i slutet av kilen - precis där vi nu befinner oss.
Brott över 2531 är nu köps signal för Nasdaq indexet.



Ser vi på Nasdaq's FUTUREINDEX, så har den gamla toppen blivit bruten. MEN vi ligger p.t. strax under medianlinjen i en (grå) pitchfork och inne i en negativ (blå) "megafon formation" och innan det problemet är löst vet vi inget. (Men om de ovan påpekade förhållandena är korrekt blir en stigning genom dessa negativa faktorer en intressant affär. Positivt är break out ur stigande (röd) kil.







I OMX indexet ovan kan vi se support på medianlinjen - break över övre medianlinjen sam den röda motståndslinjen. Vi sakna bara break över den gamla toppen.......

Kanske är det Maersk som ger den extrra push som behövs för att bryta indexet.
vi ligger strax under en gigantisk inverterad sHs formation - men lägg också märke till den sHs formationen med blå halslinje - den är testad och har en potential som ligger över den nya...



Slutligen en enorm FA sammanställning av nuläget.

Hur en man kan hålla så många fakta i hjärnan samtidigt är över min begrepsnivå - men det visar ocks å vilka våra motståndare är och hur svårt det är att lura av dom deras pengar......

Men här är linken om nån vill följa honom/henne/dom? i framtiden

http://www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was very bullish as the DJIA hit another all-time high and the S&P 500 is off to its best start to a second quarter since 2004. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line rose to an all-time high, most sectors gained and volume was above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety finished the week around average levels. The AAII percentage of bulls rose to 46.94% this week from 40.85% the prior week. This reading is now around average levels. The AAII percentage of bears fell to 29.59% this week from 38.03% the prior week. This reading is now around average levels. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 34.9%, an above-average level. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% at the major bear-market low during 2002. Moreover, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 37.5%, a very high level seen during only two other periods since tracking began in the 1980s. Those periods were October 1990-July 1991 and March-May 2003, both being near major market bottoms. The extreme readings in the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears, during those periods, peaked at 41.6% on January 31, 1991 and 38.1% on April 10, 2003. We are very close to eclipsing the peak in bearish sentiment seen during the 2000-2003 market meltdown, which is remarkable considering the macro backdrop now and then.

I continue to believe that steadfastly high bearish sentiment in many quarters is mind-boggling, considering the 23.2% rise in the S&P 500 in just over ten months, the 101.3% gain for the S&P 500 since the 2002 major bear market lows, the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line hit a new record high on Monday, one of the best August/September/October runs in U.S. history, the fact that the Dow made another all-time high Friday and that we are in the early stages of what is historically a very strong period for U.S. equities after a midterm election.

As well, despite recent gains, the forward P/E on the S&P 500 is a very reasonable 15.9, falling from 16.2 at the beginning of the year, due to the historic run of double-digit profit growth increases and the fact that earnings are exceeding estimates so far this quarter. The S&P P/E multiple has contracted for three consecutive years. It has only contracted four consecutive years two times since 1905. Each point of multiple expansion is equivalent to a 6.6% gain in the S&P 500. Many bears still remain stunningly complacent, in my opinion.

As I have said many times over the last few months, every pullback is seen as a major top, and every move higher is just another shorting/selling opportunity. I see few signs of capitulation by the bears and their crowded ranks are still swelling by the day. Even most bulls have raised substantial cash of late, anticipating a more meaningful correction on earnings-related apprehensions and perceived upcoming seasonal weakness. I still sense very few investors believe the market has meaningful upside potential from current levels.

As well, there are many other indicators registering high levels of investor anxiety. The ISE Sentiment Index plunged an extraordinarily depressed 46.0 last month and to a depressed 82.0 into Friday’s rally. Its all-time low was 36.0 in July of last year, right before the market went on a tear. Moreover, the 10-day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index made a historic low recently at 87.06 and remains below average levels despite another Dow record.

The NYSE Arms Index hit 15.98 last month, the highest level since record-keeping began in the 1960s. The three-day moving average of the NYSE Arms hit an amazing 5.46 during that period, also the highest on record. The VIX had its largest one-day percentage increase in history last month. The CBOE total put/call ratio ten-day moving average hit 1.31 last month, the highest since at least 1995 when Bloomberg began tracking the number. NYSE short interest has soared 14.6% the last two months, the largest two-month jump on record, to a new all-time high. Moreover, public short interest continues to soar to record levels, and U.S. stock mutual funds have seen outflows for most of the last year, according to AMG Data Services. The percentage of U.S. mutual fund assets in domestic stocks is still the lowest since at least 1984, when record-keeping began.

There has been an historic explosion of hedge funds created with absolute return, low correlation or negative correlation U.S. stock strategies that directly benefit from the perception of a stagnant or declining U.S. stock market. Commodity funds, which typically have a low or negative correlation with stocks, have been created in record numbers. A short-sighted day-trading pessimistic mentality has thoroughly permeated the investment landscape. Research boutiques with a negative bias have sprung up to cater to these many new funds that help pump air into the current U.S. "negativity bubble." Many of the most widely read stories on financial sites are written with a pessimistic slant to gain readers. "Permabears" are more widely followed than ever, despite the market's triple-digit percentage gain from the major bear market lows during 2002-03. At this major market bottom, "permabulls" had been shunned and chastised for a couple of years. Wall Street analysts have made the fewest "buy" calls on stocks this year since Bloomberg began tracking in 1997. "Buy" calls have been trending lower for ten months, despite the big rally in stocks.

Investment blogger sentiment hit extreme levels of pessimism at 18.9% Bulls, 54.1% Bears last month and still remains subdued. The UltraShort QQQQ ProShares (QID) continues to see soaring volume. There is still a very high wall of worry for stocks to climb substantially from current levels as the public and many professionals remain very skeptical of this bull market and continue to trade with "one foot out the door."

I continue to believe this is a direct result of the strong belief by the herd that the U.S. is in a long-term trading range or secular bear environment. There is still overwhelming evidence that overall investment sentiment regarding U.S. stocks has never been this poor in history, with the Dow at an all-time high. This is serving to further widen the so-called "wealth gap." I still expect the herd to finally embrace the current bull market this year, which should result in another substantial move higher in the major averages as the S&P 500 breaks out to an all-time high to join the Dow and Russell 2000.

It is hard to believe after the bombardment of pessimism, depression comparisons and "crash" calls over the last six weeks that the average U.S. stock is still doing very well this year. The Value Line Geometric Index (VGY), the best gauge of the broad market, is 6.8% higher this year. Moreover, mid-caps stocks are sporting 9% gains already this year. Based on the action over the last six weeks, even more cash has piled up on the sidelines as money market funds recently hit record levels.

I continue to believe that a significant portion of this cash will be deployed into true "growth" companies as their out-performance versus value stocks gains steam throughout the year. There is massive bull firepower on the sidelines at a time when the supply of stock is still shrinking. I still believe the coming bullish shift in long-term sentiment with respect to U.S. stocks will result in the "mother of all short-covering rallies."

The average 30-year mortgage rate fell 5 basis points this week to 6.17%, which is 63 basis points below July 2006 highs. There is still mounting evidence that the worst of the housing downturn is over, despite recent worries over sub-prime lending, and that sales activity is stabilizing at relatively high levels. About 14% of total mortgage loans are sub-prime. Of those 14%, another 13.3% are delinquent. Thus, only about 2% of total mortgage loans outstanding are currently problematic. I do not believe sub-prime woes are nearly large enough or will become large enough to meaningfully impact the prime market and bring down the US economy. The Fed’s Bernanke said recently that the prime market is still strong and that he sees no spillover from the sub-prime problems. As well, the Fed’s Poole said recently that, “there is no danger to the economy from sub-prime loan defaults.” There are just too many other positives that outweigh this negative. Treasury Secretary Paulson said just this week that all the signs he looks at lead him to conclude housing is near or at the bottom. Moreover, the Fed’s Hoenig, Lacker, Plosser, Fisher and Bies all made positive comments recently regarding the prospects for the US housing market. Finally, the ABX-HE-BBB-07-1 sub-prime Index, the source of much concern, has surged 12.6% from its lows last month.

Mortgage applications fell -2.5% this week, but continue to trend higher with the decline in mortgage rates and healthy job market. Existing Home Sales, which make up around 85% of the US housing market, surged 3.9% in February, the largest gain since December 2003. The NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 33 in March, up from 30 in September of last year. Within the NAHB Housing Index for March, the future sales component came in at 44, up from 37 in September. The Mortgage Bankers Association said recently that the US housing market will “fully regain its footing” by year-end. Moreover, the California Building Industry Association recently gave an upbeat forecast for housing, saying production would be near last year’s brisk levels. Finally, the House Price Index, which was reported last month, rose 1.1% in the fourth quarter of last year versus a 1.0% gain in the third quarter.

The Housing Index(HGX) has risen 23% from July 2006 lows, notwithstanding its recent pullback. The Case-Schiller housing futures have improved and are now projecting only a 2.7% decline in the average home price through August, up from projections of a 5.0% decline 8 months ago. Considering the median house has appreciated over 50% during the last few years with record high US home ownership, this would be considered a “soft landing.” I continue to believe the many U.S. stock market bears are exaggerating, in every media outlet possible, the overall impact of housing on the economy in hopes of scaring investors, consumers and the government into a panicked state, thus making the problems worse than would otherwise be the case. Housing activity and home equity extractions had been slowing substantially for 2 years and the negative effects were mostly offset by many other very positive aspects of the US economy.

Home values are more important than stock prices to the average American, but the median home has barely declined in value after a historic run-up, while the S&P 500 has risen 23.2% in just over ten months and 101.3% since the Oct. 4, 2002 major bear market low. Americans’ median net worth is still at record high levels as a result, a fact that is generally unrecognized or minimized by the record number of stock market participants that feel it is in their financial and/or political interests to paint a bleak picture of America.

Moreover, energy prices are down significantly, consumer spending remains healthy, unemployment is low by historic standards, interest rates are low, inflation is below average rates and wages are rising at above-average rates. The economy has created almost 2 million jobs in just the last year. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that March job cuts fell -24.6% from year-ago levels. As well, the Monster Employment Index hit another record high in March. The 50-week moving average of initial jobless claims has been lower during only two other periods since the 70s. Finally, the unemployment rate is a historically low 4.4%, down from 5.1% in September 2005, notwithstanding fewer real estate-related jobs and significant auto production cutbacks. The unemployment rate’s current 12-month average is 4.6%. It has only been lower during two other periods since the mid-50s.

The Consumer Price Index for March rose 2.8% year-over-year, down from a 4.7% increase in September of 2005. This is below the 20-year average of 3.1%. Moreover, the CPI has only been lower during four other periods since the mid-1960s. Several other measures of inflation are still below long-term average rates. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Core, rose 2.4% year-over-year in February versus the 20-year average of 2.5%. Furthermore, most measures of Americans’ income growth are now almost twice the rate of inflation. Americans’ Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.0% year-over-year in March, substantially above the 3.2% 20-year average. The 10-month moving-average of Americans’ Average Hourly Earnings is currently 4.07%. 1998 was the only year during the 90s expansion that it exceeded current levels.

The benchmark 10-year T-note yield fell 9 basis points for the week as the Core CPI and Capacity Utilization came in below estimates, commodity prices fell and emerging market worries resurfaced. According to Intrade.com, the chances of a US recession beginning this year have fallen to 16.7% from 35% in January. In my opinion, many investors’ lingering fears over an economic “hard landing” still seem misplaced. The housing slowdown and auto-production cutbacks impacted manufacturing greatly over the last six months, but those drags on growth are starting to subside. Moreover, for all of 2006, US GDP growth was an above-average 3.2%, notwithstanding those headwinds.

While the drag from housing is subsiding, housing activity will not add to economic growth in any meaningful way this year as homebuilders continue to reduce inventories and sales stabilize at lower, but still relatively high by historic standards, levels. As well, recent substantial manufacturing inventory de-stocking will help produce below-average growth in the first quarter. However, the Fed’s Beige Book report released recently said manufacturing was now “steady or expanding” in most districts. Moreover, the March Chicago Purchasing Managers Index soared by the largest amount since record keeping began in 1968. I still expect a smaller GDP deflator, inventory rebuilding, rising auto production, increased business spending and a still healthy service sector to boost US economic growth back to around 3% before year-end.

Manufacturing accounts for roughly 12% of US economic growth, while consumer spending accounts for about 70% of growth. U.S. GDP growth came in at a sluggish 1.1% and 0.7% during the first two quarters of 1995. During May 1995, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell below 50, which signals a contraction in activity. It stayed below 50, reaching a low of 45.5, until August 1996. During that period, the S&P 500 soared 31% as its P/E multiple expanded from 16.0 to 17.2. This was well before the stock market bubble began to inflate. As well, manufacturing was more important to overall US economic growth at that time. Stocks can and will rise as P/E multiples expand, even with more average economic and earnings growth.

Weekly retail sales rose .2% last week vs. a 4.2% gain the prior week. The slight gain was mainly the result of the timing of the recent Easter holiday. The 6-week average gain of weekly retail sales is 3.3% versus weekly gains of 2.75% the prior 3 months. The job market remains healthy, housing has improved modestly, wage growth has accelerated, stocks are substantially higher and inflation has decelerated to below average rates. Many consumers are chomping at the bit to buy new spring clothing after such a warm fall muted holiday clothing sales. Finally, I expect consumer confidence to make new cycle highs later this year as gas prices fall, the job market remains healthy, stocks rise further, home sales stabilize at relatively high levels, inflation decelerates more and interest rates remain low. This should help sustain healthy consumer spending over the intermediate-term.

Just take a look at commodity charts, gauges of commodity sentiment and inflows into commodity-related funds over the last couple of years. Net assets invested in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose to almost $70 billion in 2006 from $15 billion in 2003. There has been a historic mania for commodities by investment funds that has pushed prices significantly higher than where the fundamentals dictate. That mania is now in the stages of unwinding. The CRB Commodities Index, the main source of inflation fears has declined -11.8% over the last 12 months and -14.6% from May highs despite a historic flood of capital into commodity-related funds and numerous potential upside catalysts. Oil has declined $14/bbl from July highs. As well, this year oil plunged $12/bbl. over the first 18 days of trading of the new year. Last year, oil rose $2.05/bbl. on the first trading day of the year and $7.40/bbl. through the first three weeks of trading as commodity funds, flush with new capital, drove futures prices higher.

I suspect, given the average commodity hedge fund fell around double-digits last year as the CRB Index dropped 7.4%, that many energy-related funds saw outflows at year-end. Recent reports have also indicated that institutional investors are switching from commodity funds that trade energy futures to hedge funds that buy energy-related equities. The commodity mania has also pumped air into the current US “negativity bubble.” Talk of runaway inflation, drought, world wars, global warming, a US dollar collapse, recession/depression and global pandemics, to name a few, has been fueled by the mania for commodities. In my opinion, that is why it is so easy for most to believe that US housing was in a bubble, but then act shocked when commodities plunge. I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked for this cycle as global economic growth slows to average levels, unit labor costs remain subdued and the mania for commodities continues to reverse course.

The EIA reported this week that gasoline supplies fell more than expectations as refineries remain very slow to come back online after recent “outages.” However, gasoline supplies remain around average levels for this time of the year, notwithstanding low refinery utilization. Gasoline futures fell for the week and have plunged 26.2% from September 2005 highs even as some Gulf of Mexico oil production remains shut-in and fears over future production disruptions persist. Gasoline crack spreads are still at levels seen during Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath and last year's euphoric top in oil prices. It will be interesting to see if members of Congress threaten investigations as they did the last time spreads hit current levels. Gasoline crack spreads peaked last August right before oil fell $28/bbl. in less than six months. It is also interesting to note that commercial hedgers, the “smart money”, continue to build their net short oil position into this spike in crack spreads, which is very unusual. The very elevated level of gas prices will further dampen global fuel demand, sending gas prices still lower over the intermediate-term.

Recently, the EIA lowered second and third quarter global demand growth for oil by 400,000 barrels per day. The 10-week moving-average of US oil inventories is also still approaching 8-year highs, as well. Oil consumption in the 30 OECD countries fell last year for the first time in over two decades, while global economic growth boomed 5.3%. Global demand destruction is pervasive. Over the last three years, global oil demand is only up 3.1%, despite the strongest global growth in almost three decades, while global supplies have increased 4.0%, according to the Energy Intelligence Group. The EIA recently forecast that bio-fuels should rise to the equivalent of more than five million barrels of crude oil production a day within four years. Recently, Energy Secretary Bodman said the US will likely remove tariffs to boost bio-fuel imports, which should reduce fears over a potential corn shortage. Corn has already dropped 17.2% from February highs and has likely put in a major top.

As well, OPEC said recently that global crude oil supply would exceed demand by 100 million barrels this quarter. Worldwide oil inventories are poised to begin increasing at an accelerated rate over the next year. There is a very fine line in the crude oil market between perceptions of "significantly supply constrained" and "massive oversupply." One of the main reasons I believe OPEC has been slow to actually meet their pledged cuts has been the fear of losing market share to non-OPEC countries. Moreover, OPEC actually needs lower prices to prevent any further long-term demand destruction. I continue to believe oil is priced at elevated levels on record speculation by investment funds, not the fundamentals.

The Amaranth Advisors hedge fund blow-up last year was a prime example of the extent to which many investment funds have been speculating on ever higher energy prices through futures contracts, thus driving the price of the underlying commodity to absurd levels for consumers and businesses. This is considered “paper demand”, which is not real demand for the underlying commodity. Amaranth, a multi-strategy hedge fund, lost about $6.5 billion of its $9.5 billion under management in less than two months speculating mostly on higher natural gas prices. I continue to believe a number of other funds will experience similar fates over the coming months after managers “pressed their bets” in hopes of making up for recent poor performance, which will further pressure energy prices as these funds unwind their leveraged long positions to meet rising investor redemptions. Moreover, the same rampant speculation that has driven the commodity mania will work against energy as downside speculation increases and drives down prices even further than the fundamentals would otherwise dictate.

Cambridge Energy Research, one of the most respected energy research firms in the world, put out a report late last year that drills gaping holes in the belief by most investors of imminent "peak oil" production. Cambridge said that its analysis indicates that the remaining global oil base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels, three times greater than "peak oil" theory proponents say and that the "peak oil" theory is based on faulty analysis. I suspect the substantial contango that still exists in energy futures, which encourages hoarding, will begin to reverse over the coming months as more investors come to the realization that the "peak oil" theory is hugely flawed, global storage tanks fill and Chinese/US demand slows further.

Global crude oil storage capacity utilization is running around 98%. Recent OPEC production cuts have resulted in a complete technical breakdown in crude futures, notwithstanding the recent bounce higher. Spare production capacity, which had been one of the main sources of angst among the many oil bulls, rises with each OPEC cut. As well, demand destruction which is already pervasive globally will only intensify over the coming years as many more alternative energy projects come to the fore. Moreover, many Americans feel as though they are helping fund terrorism or hurting the environment every time they fill up their gas tanks. I do not believe we will ever again see the demand for gas-guzzling vehicles that we saw in recent years, even if gas prices plunge further from current levels, as I expect. If OPEC actually implements all their announced production cuts, with oil still at very high levels and weakening global growth, it will only further deepen resentment towards the cartel and result in even greater long-term demand destruction.

I continue to believe oil made a major top last year during the period of historic euphoria surrounding the commodity with prices above $70/bbl. and calls for $100/bbl. oil commonplace. Even during the peak of anxiety in the recent Iranian/UK hostage stand-off, oil only rose about $6/bbl. despite renewed calls from numerous traders for $100+/bbl. oil. Falling demand growth for oil in emerging market economies, an explosion in alternatives, rising global spare production capacity, increasing global refining capacity, the complete debunking of the hugely flawed "peak oil" theory, a firmer U.S. dollar, less demand for gas guzzling vehicles, accelerating non-OPEC production, a reversal of the "contango" in the futures market, a smaller risk premium and essentially full global storage should provide the catalysts for oil to fall to $35 per barrel to $40 per barrel later this year. I fully expect oil to test $20 per barrel to $25 per barrel within the next three years.

Natural gas inventories fell slightly less than expectations this week. Prices for the commodity declined as historic investment fund speculation subsided with supplies now 22.1% above the 5-year average and near all-time high levels for this time of year as we enter spring. Furthermore, the EIA recently projected global liquefied natural gas production to soar this year, with the US poised to see a 34.5% surge in imports and another 38.5% increase in 2008. Natural gas prices have collapsed 53.1% since December 2005 highs. Notwithstanding this severe decline, natural gas anywhere near current prices is still ridiculous with absolute inventories poised to hit new records this year. The long-term average price of natural gas is $4.63 with inventories much lower than current levels.

Gold rose on the week despite the decline in oil prices on a weaker US dollar and rising investment fund speculation. Copper rose on diminished worries over global demand and short-covering. Copper is still 11.3% lower from the euphoric highs set last year. I suspect the recent bounce in copper has almost run its course. Natural gas, oil, gold and copper all look both fundamentally and technically weak longer-term. The US dollar declined for the week as traders continued increasing their short bets and inflation concerns diminished.

I continue to believe there is very little chance of another Fed rate hike anytime soon. An eventual rate cut is more likely this year as inflation continues to decelerate substantially. An eventual Fed rate cut should actually boost the dollar as currency speculators anticipate faster US economic activity relative to other developed economies. Moreover, the US budget deficit is now 1.4% of GDP, well below the 40-year average of 2.3% of GDP. As well, the trade deficit has been shrinking over the last five months. I expect foreign investors’ demand for US securities to remain strong. Homebuilding stocks outperformed substantially for the week on rising optimism that the worst of the downturn is over and short-covering. Gold stocks underperformed on profit-taking and waning merger speculation.

Current US stock prices are still providing longer-term investors very attractive opportunities, in my opinion. In my entire investment career, I have never seen the best “growth” companies in the world priced as cheaply as they are now relative to the broad market. By contrast, “value” stocks are quite expensive in many cases. A CSFB report late last year confirmed this view. The report concluded that on a price-to-cash flow basis growth stocks are cheaper than value stocks for the first time since at least 1977. The entire decline in the S&P 500’s p/e, since the bubble burst in 2000, is attributable to growth stock multiple contraction. Many “value” investors point to the still “low” price/earnings ratios of commodity stocks, notwithstanding their historic price runs over the last few years. However, commodity equities always appear the “cheapest” right before significant price declines. I still expect the most overvalued economically sensitive and emerging market stocks to underperform over the intermediate-term as the manias for those shares subside as global growth slows to more average rates.

The emerging markets’ mania, which has mainly been the by-product of the commodity mania, is likely nearing an end, as well. I continue to keep a close eye on the Vietnam Stock Index(VNINDEX), which has dwarfed the Nasdaq’s meteoric rise in the late 90s, rocketing 294% higher over the last 24 months. It is 29.3% higher this year, however the index has dropped 17.1% over the last five weeks. The bursting of this bubble in Vietnam, may well signal the end of the mania for emerging market stocks. I continue to believe a chain reaction of events has already begun that will result in a substantial increase in demand for US equities.

S&P 500 profits had risen at double-digit rates for 18 consecutive quarters, the best streak since recording keeping began in 1936. So far this quarter, with 25% of S&P 500 companies reporting, earnings are rising at a 5% rate versus estimates of a 3.5% increase. Moreover, 67% of companies reporting have exceeded estimates. It looks like profit growth will come in at about 7% for the quarter or double recent projections. Notwithstanding a 101.3% total return(which is equivalent to a 16.6% average annual return) for the S&P 500 since the October 2002 bottom, its forward p/e has contracted relentlessly and now stands at a very reasonable 15.9. The 20-year average p/e for the S&P 500 is 23.0.

In my opinion, the US stock market continues to factor in way too much bad news at current levels. One of the characteristics of the current US “negativity bubble” is that most potential positives are undermined, downplayed or completely ignored, while almost every potential negative is exaggerated, trumpeted, obsessed over and promptly priced in to stock prices. “Irrational pessimism” by investors has resulted in a dramatic decrease in the supply of stock. Booming merger and acquisition activity is also greatly constricting supply. Many commodity funds, which have received a historic flood of capital inflows over the last few years are now seeing redemptions as the CRB Index continues to languish. Some of this capital will likely find its way back to US stocks. As well, money market funds are brimming with record amounts of cash. There is massive bull firepower available on the sidelines for US equities at a time when the supply of stock has contracted.

A recent Citigroup report said that the total value of U.S. shares dropped last year, despite rising stock prices, by the most in 22 years. Last year, supply contracted, but demand for U.S. equities was muted. While overall US public sentiment is still depressed given the macro backdrop, I am seeing some signs that irrational pessimism is lifting a bit. US stock mutual funds have seen increasing cash inflows of late. This should make the many bears very nervous, as keeping the public excessively pessimistic on U.S. stocks has been one of their main weapons. I still suspect accelerating demand for U.S. stocks, combined with shrinking supply, will make for a lethally bullish combination this year.

Considering the overwhelming majority of investment funds failed to meet the S&P 500's 15.8% return last year, I suspect most portfolio managers have a very low threshold of pain this year for falling substantially behind their benchmark once again. The fact that last year the US economy withstood one of the sharpest downturns in the housing market in history and economic growth never dipped below 2% and averaged 3.2% illustrates the underlying strength of the economy as a whole. While significant inventory de-stocking has led to a mid-cycle slowdown, I expect inventory rebuilding to begin adding to economic growth this quarter.

I continue to believe the historically extreme readings in many gauges of investor angst over the last six weeks indicated the US market was cleansing itself of “weak hands” at an extraordinarily rapid rate. Buyout/merger speculation, a stronger US dollar, lower commodity prices, election cycle strength, decelerating inflation readings, a pick-up in consumer spending, lower long-term rates, increased consumer/investor confidence, short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety, rising demand for US stocks and the realization that economic growth is poised to rise around average rates should provide the catalysts for another substantial push higher in the major averages this year as p/e multiples expand significantly. I still expect the S&P 500 to return a total of about 17% for the year. "Growth" stocks will likely lead the broad market higher, with the Russell 1000 Growth iShares(IWF) rising a total of 25%. Finally, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose slightly this week and is still forecasting healthy US economic activity. The 10-week moving average of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index is still near cycle highs.